By Bikram Vohra
Every now and again a voice of authority in the aviation world spins out a story damning with faint praise India’s strides in this field and its promise of becoming a powerhouse that could replace China. How it works is to laud the Indian climb power and then with plastic regret claim that China is just too far ahead to be challenged, more’s the pity.
Well, five years ago the notion of Indian carriers taking up buying options of 1000 aircraft would have been deemed ridiculous. But it has been done. Again, as has been said before, with a 94% potential virgin uplift in its 1.6 billion people the scope is immense. Again, as the middle class burgeons and becomes the feeder in a more intricate network who is to say the revolution cannot be a massive success.
It will not happen in a day for sure but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater yet.
India has many strengths that it can use to shoehorn support across the continents. It has a highly developed hospitality industry and one that probably has the most dense service to guest ratio in the world.
On the state level this welcoming base has been augmented by statewise initiatives in harnessing the nation’s tourism richness and historical legacy. Nature is benign and supportive in her bounty. Today there are beachfronts, mountain resorts, desert safaris, forests, animal reserves, river rafting, hiking, trekking, health-oriented resorts, sporting events, all options to get away from the madding crowd. India’s hotel industry truly offers a diverse range of accommodations to cater to different segments of travellers, from budget-conscious tourists to seven-star luxury-seeking visitors. India’s much vaunted cuisines are another lure.
Major chains are all represented via a mix of internationally recognized hotel brands. This includes well-known global hotel brands, as well as homegrown hospitality companies that have established a strong presence in the domestic market.
Major cities, tourist destinations, and business hubs across India are home to a wide array of hotels, ranging from upscale properties to mid-range and budget accommodations. These establishments cater to the needs of leisure travellers, business travellers, and event attendees. Bizz travel in the MICE category is also growing.
Again, at another level, India is the world’s number one military hardware shopper and international joint ventures with civil and military offset agreements are of the essence. It is a win-win situation that must be carefully and yet aggressively exploited. Major global entities are comfortable doing business with India.
India is so much more user friendly to the western world than China which is seen through tinted glasses as a threat not a friend. As a democracy the transparency and absence of restrictions imposed by governments makes India a better bet and the world knows that.
Manufacturing at home with India’s skilled manpower is a no brainer and today tooling at the state-of-the-art level is a given.
Let us keep going in the same tone of unbracketed positivity. India is geographically ideally placed to be the next favoured stopover hub on the east- west routes. Now, it does not call for a replacement or an unseating of the present set up. No one argues about the power of Gulf based airlines and the quality of their service. But there is always room for alternatives and there is no gainsaying the fact that there can always be a viable option. China is hard placed to fit that role and is not on the prime track. As India’s frontline carriers begin to offer competitive services there will be a certain shift. India’s investments are not small, and the results will show. India’s 35 million diaspora is itself a major catalyst and a sort of standing army to feed the load factor. Stopping over at home bases will be an added attraction. The accusations of shabby aircraft may have some merit and these need to be acknowledged and addressed. Air India’s induction of the A 350 of which the first five of an ordered 40 will be in service by March 2024.will underscore future enhancements. The once unbeatable Maharaja of the skies reputation of Air India is again offering a royal wave. Like they say nothing is impossible. Yes, in-flight meals are still an Indian strength and attraction, only now more so.
Aaaha, say the detractors it is all very well to order 1000 aircraft but can the infrastructure by way of airports keep pace. After all, we have very poor standards and nowhere near the cityports in the Gulf or even Europe and the US. These are fair assessments but not worthy of gloom. The emphasis on building 15 new airports and upgrading current ones is a work in progress. Reports indicate the country will have 230-240 airports, including heliports and water aerodromes, by 2030, up from 148 now. The combined fleet size of Indian carriers is expected to double from the current seven hundred by the end of this decade with the mega orders already placed.
That is a big lift. We then get told that MRO facilities are inadequate as are the runway categories. Last year seven runways were upgraded. More are on the way. With an expected 7% increase in traffic annually over the next ten years it is no wonder India has earmarked twelve billion dollars to create seventy-two more airports by 2025. Ambitious yet supremely possible.
Similarly, MRO facilities are lagging but at least the awareness that something must be done is being faced. The projected growth will generate 100,000 jobs and save over two billion dollars in foreign exchange. The Minister of Aviation Jyotiraditya Scindia has already fast-tracked easing of restrictions on the MRO sector.
No one argues there is a need to take MRO activities to another level. We must become independent and self-sufficient and offer MRO service at a global level. India’s MRO market for its commercial aircraft fleet is currently valued at $1.7 billion. This is expected to increase by about 9 percent a year to reach $4 billion in 2031 with commensurate growth in the fleet. According to a Kearney report the potential in civil and military MRO activity could reach $7 billion by 2030. India’s top three MRO players—AIESL, Air Works, and GMR Aero Technic—account for only about $200 million in revenue. Meanwhile, the major global companies, such as Lufthansa Technik (LHT), Air France Industries, and KLM Engineering & Maintenance, each have annual revenues of $3.5 billion to $4 billion. The argument is predicated on the fact that at present only about 20% of MRO services are engaged at home with the rest going abroad. That is again an enormous potential if the sector is given due importance. There are eight major players in the Indian market namely, AIESL, Air Works, Indamer Private Limited, Deccan Charter, Taj Air, Bird ExecuJet, GMR Aero Technic Limited and Max MRO Private Limited who have the skills to conduct MRO operations on most aircrafts which operate in Indian skies.
As we get our ducks in a row, one of the most crucial areas is that of Air Traffic Control and the need for massive upgrading of equipment and more attractive remuneration for those who accept this vital element of aviation as a career. An inhouse report highlights the shortage of air traffic controllers in India, with 3,692 ATCOs on active duty against the required current strength of 4,211. This means that 519 more personnel are required to keep operations smooth. This gap would increase exponentially unless the planning began now and was done in a phased and planned fashion.
Modern technology and even the use of artificial intelligence in monitoring aircraft movements must be factored in. Investing in aircraft as we have demands changes across the board and in unison. We cannot afford the weakest link.
Acquiring a fleet of 1000 aircraft does represent a substantial investment for any nation or airline, and it necessitates a comprehensive infrastructure to support various aspects of aviation operations. The infrastructure required to accommodate and maintain so many aircraft encompass a wide range of elements, including airports, maintenance facilities, skilled personnel, air traffic control systems, and logistical support. It entails expanding and modernizing existing airports, constructing new terminals and runways, and enhancing ground support equipment to handle the influx of aircraft. Additionally, the development of efficient ground transportation networks, including road and rail connections to and from airports, becomes essential to ensure seamless passenger and cargo movement.
The building of cadres in a skilled workforce encompassing pilots, maintenance engineers, air traffic controllers, ground staff, and management personnel. Training academies and educational institutions must be established or expanded to cater to the growing demand for aviation professionals. Equipping individuals with the necessary skills and expertise is vital for safe and efficient aircraft operations.
Upgrading ATC technologies, radar systems, and navigational aids is crucial for managing the increased air traffic density, ensuring safety, and optimizing airspace utilization. Logistics encompass supply chain management, warehousing, spare parts distribution, and fuelling facilities.
The implications of developing infrastructure to support 1000 aircraft extend beyond the aviation industry, influencing economic growth, employment, and connectivity.
Tough? Yes. Impossible? No. Not in the least.
Bikram Vohra is the Consulting Editor of Indian Aerospace & Defence
