By Ameya Joshi
Aviation & Route Network Analyst
Indian aviation has been on a roller coaster ride for as long as we know. As airlines smash older order records, airlines have continued to shut down at regular intervals. A year before COVID, Jet Airways, once the largest carrier in India went down. The years 2020 and 2021 passed uneventfully under the shadow of the pandemic. Regional carrier TruJet went down in February 2022 and Go FIRST shut down early this year.
At the close of 2023 domestic traffic in India has reached an all-time high. There is more coming next year. 2023 was about aircraft orders, 2024 is going to be about expansion, new aircraft types and more.
A look at top five influencers shaping Indian aviation in 2024.
Airbus A350 operations
Air India will become the first and only Indian carrier to operate the A350s. The airline has signed up for 34 A350-1000s and 6 A350-900s the first lot arrive in December but will begin operations in 2024. This will pave the way for fleet modernisation and would be the first of the widebody aircraft from its own order.
International expansion
Air India is starting its expansion this December, with return to Amsterdam, increasing frequency to Copenhagen and Washington and new flights to Phuket. The induction of older B777s (ex-Etihad, ex-Delta, ex-Singapore Airlines) have not been added at the speed at which they were planned.
With the induction of A350s and additional B777s, international expansion enjoys tailwinds. This will be supported with the refurbishment of aircraft, the B777s will return as a four-class product, with the addition of premium economy.
Domestic growth
Indian aviation will close 2023 with the highest ever domestic traffic, surpassing 2019 handsomely. One would wonder how it is that the new highs are achieved in the years when the airline goes down and capacity is sucked out of the market.
This would also be the year when Air India Express will see its highest growth ever, more than doubling its fleet and the first time that IndiGo will be under pressure to grow.
Engine trouble
The year has seen an airline go down with the blame on Pratt & Whitney engines. IndiGo – the largest airline in the country, already has around forty aircraft grounded due to engine issues. This will increase by another 30 to 40 planes starting January, when more engines are impacted. A staggering eighty aircraft or more could be grounded.
The airline has signed up for older planes, added planes on lease but all of this comes at a cost and causes stress on the system. Will the OEM sufficiently compensate it? Will it derail its expansion plans?
Solvency of airlines
In the recent past, two airlines have said that they could shut down. The first one was Akasa Air which said so in the court and the top management had to take extra pains to control the communication and the next was SpiceJet which has been in a turbulent financial state for a while. The airline has delayed its quarterly and yearly results and after settlement with lessors, continues to have cases for pending payments.
India can least afford another bankruptcy, yet regional carriers remain on edge, even as one more is expected to start operations soon. Can the sector move towards a stable one? With 80% of the market divided amongst two airline groups, there may finally be light at the end of the tunnel.
| | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
| Jan | 125.08 | 127.83 | 77.34 | 64.08 | 125.42 |
| Feb | 113.49 | 123.68 | 78.27 | 76.96 | 120.69 |
| Mar | 115.96 | 77.62 | 78.22 | 106.19 | 128.93 |
| Apr | 109.95 | 0 | 57.25 | 105.47 | 128.88 |
| May | 121.87 | 2.81 | 21.15 | 114.67 | 132.14 |
| Jun | 120.25 | 19.84 | 31.13 | 105.12 | 124.87 |
| Jul | 119.05 | 21.07 | 50.07 | 97.05 | 121 |
| Aug | 117.93 | 28.32 | 67.01 | 101.16 | 124.33 |
| Sep | 115.33 | 39.43 | 70.66 | 103.55 | 122.46 |
| Oct | 123.16 | 52.71 | 89.85 | 114.07 | 126.34 |
| Nov | 129.47 | 63.54 | 105.16 | 116.79 | |
| Dec | 130.18 | 73.27 | 112.02 | 127.35 | |
Source: DGCA
