By Cdr Rahul Verma (r)
Introduction
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) holds a unique geopolitical significance, serving as a conduit for 80% of global maritime oil trade and connecting the economies of the East and West. This region is a strategic backyard for India and a vital artery for its economic and security interests. However, the region’s waters are increasingly contested, with players like the Pakistan Navy and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) asserting their presence. The growing threat of asymmetric warfare, such as piracy, terrorism, and disruption of maritime trade, compounds this challenge. The vastness of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is as much an opportunity as a challenge for the Indian Navy, calling for innovation in naval strategy.
Against this backdrop, unmanned systems offer a promising solution. They bring advantages of endurance, cost-efficiency, and reduced human risk. But are these platforms redefining naval power dynamics, or are they merely enhancing existing capabilities? These do more than extend a navy’s operational reach, they redefine its approach to economic security, warfare, and international cooperation. Drawing from the lessons of Alfred Thayer Mahan, who emphasized the intrinsic connection between maritime trade, naval power, and national prosperity, this article examines how Unmanned fits into India’s maritime strategy. By incorporating the latest insights into cooperative naval operations, the lifespan of asymmetric capabilities as seen in the Red Sea, and the Rule of engagements for autonomous systems, I try to evaluate their transformative potential in the Indian Ocean.
Maritime Commons and Economic Security
Navies have long been custodians of their nations’ economic prosperity. As Mahan articulated in The Influence of Sea Power on History, a nation’s economic strength is directly tied to its ability to protect seaborne trade. In the modern era following is gospel truth:-
70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by water.
90% of global trade occurs by sea.
80% of the world’s population resides near coastlines.
India, with its strategic location astride key Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), depends heavily on unhindered access to the maritime commons. The Indian Ocean accounts for over 75% of India’s maritime trade and energy imports. Ensuring its security is paramount for economic resilience. The IOR has become a stage for geopolitical contestation, with China’s expanding naval footprint posing a significant challenge. From its “String of Pearls” strategy to its increasing submarine presence, China’s activities demand an agile and innovative response. The question is not whether India can secure its waters but how efficiently it can do so in the face of evolving threats.
Strategic Challenges in the IOR
To understand the utility of unmanned systems, one must first appreciate the challenges posed by state and non-state actors in the region:
Pakistan Navy. Historically reliant on external aid, Pakistan’s naval ambitions focus on asymmetric and deterrence strategies, especially through submarine warfare and fast attack craft. The introduction of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) or armed drones could bolster its disruptive capabilities, particularly around chokepoints like the Arabian Sea.
Chinese PLA (N). China’s expanding footprint in the IOR, through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and bases like Djibouti, signals its ambition to dominate these waters. The PLAN’s growing reliance on unmanned platforms, such as swarming drones and UUVs for anti-submarine operations, presents a direct challenge to India’s maritime security.
Asymmetric Threats. The IOR is plagued by piracy, terrorism, and potential gray-zone tactics like cyberattacks on maritime infrastructure. These threats often target vulnerabilities in commercial shipping and port operations, disrupting trade and inflating costs.
Addressing Pakistan’s Naval Strategy
Pakistan’s naval doctrine focuses on exploiting asymmetry to counter India’s numerical and qualitative advantage. With limited resources, Pakistan emphasizes submarines, missile craft, and strategic positioning. Its acquisitions, such as the Hangor-class submarines and tactical drones, signal a move toward more covert and disruptive tactics. Addressing this strategy requires nuanced solutions as mentioned below:-
Leveraging Persistent Surveillance. The Pakistan Navy’s submarine fleet poses a significant challenge, particularly in the Arabian Sea, where they operate in proximity to India’s western coast. Deploying long-endurance UAVs like the MQ-9 Sea Guardian ensures persistent ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) over suspected submarine activity zones. Additionally, unmanned platforms can monitor the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for illegal intrusions or covert activities.
Proactive Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) Pakistan’s reliance on diesel-electric submarines makes them vulnerable to advanced ASW technologies. India can deploy unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) equipped with active sonar for detection and tracking. These UUVs, being indigenously manufactured and operating in swarms, can cordon off high-risk areas and ensure continuous monitoring. Autonomous ASW capabilities also reduce dependency on manned assets like P-8I aircraft or destroyers.
Neutralizing Fast Attack Craft (FAC). Fast attack crafts equipped with cruise missiles or torpedoes represent a tactical threat to coastal and offshore assets. Armed USVs, capable of autonomous or semi-autonomous targeting, can intercept and neutralize FACs before they close the distance. These USVs presently being manufactured by Sagar Defence and Tardid Technologies can also act as mobile sentinels, creating a protective layer around critical maritime assets.
Countering Maritime Proxy Tactics. Pakistan has historically used non-state actors to create instability, including potential maritime terrorism. Deploying autonomous systems for port security, underwater inspections, and coastal monitoring mitigates these threats. UAVs equipped with electro-optical sensors can track suspicious movements near strategic ports like Mumbai or Kandla.
Countering PLAN’s Maritime Expansion
China’s maritime strategy is far more expansive, aiming to establish a dominant presence in the IOR to safeguard its trade routes and project power. The PLAN employs a mix of conventional forces, unmanned platforms, and strategic bases to achieve this goal. Countering such a multifaceted approach demands an equally layered response, which I have tried to bring out:-
Strategic ISR and MDA. The PLAN’s increasing use of unmanned systems for reconnaissance, particularly around contested zones, demands India’s vigilance. Enhancing Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) through a network of UAVs, satellites, and coastal radar stations ensures comprehensive coverage. Unmanned platforms like Hermes Starliner, Heron 2 and MQ-9Bs can maintain surveillance over PLAN assets operating near India’s EEZ or key chokepoints.
Deterrence through Swarm Tactics. China’s experimentation with drone swarms for surveillance and combat has implications for naval operations in the IOR. India can counter this by developing and deploying its swarm and anti-drone technologies. Autonomous surface swarms being built by Sagar Defence and Tardid Technologies can protect vital shipping lanes or overwhelm PLAN assets in a conflict scenario.
Strengthening Partnerships. Collaboration with Quad members (Australia, Japan, the US) and regional players like Indonesia and Sri Lanka can establish a unified front against PLAN’s expansion. Shared unmanned resources, such as cooperative ISR operations using UAVs and USVs, like a common information node, create a deterrent force that can amplify India’s reach.
Focused Development of UUVs. PLAN’s interest in undersea dominance, demonstrated by its advanced UUV programs, necessitates India’s counter-development. Investing in indigenous UUVs for mine warfare, submarine hunting, and intelligence gathering can thwart PLAN’s ambitions in key maritime corridors.
Securing Strategic Chokepoints. China’s heavy reliance on the Malacca Strait makes it a critical vulnerability. Deploying unmanned platforms to monitor and, if necessary, disrupt PLAN’s activities in this chokepoint enhances India’s leverage in a potential standoff.
Towards a New Naval Strategy
Unmanned systems are not merely tactical tools, they are strategic enablers that can redefine the Indian Navy’s approach to the IOR. For this transformation to materialize, the Navy must adopt a comprehensive framework as listed below:-
Integration of Unmanned and Manned Platforms. The future battlefield in the IOR will require seamless coordination between manned ships and submarines and their unmanned counterparts. For example, UAVs operating alongside destroyers can extend sensor coverage, while UUVs provide undersea intelligence. The Navy must develop robust communication networks to enable this integration, with AI-driven analytics offering real-time operational insights.
Indigenous Innovation Ecosystem. Relying on imports for unmanned systems limits strategic autonomy. India must invest in its startups and defence PSUs to build a self-reliant ecosystem for autonomous systems. This includes not only hardware but also software for autonomy, navigation, and real-time decision-making. Organizations like DRDO and private firms including iDEX winners should collaborate to produce cutting-edge systems tailored to the IOR’s unique challenges.
Adopting Swarm-Centric Doctrines. Swarm tactics offer a decisive edge in asymmetric warfare. The Navy should explore doctrines where swarms of UAVs or USVs can overwhelm adversaries, protect key assets, or create diversions during conflicts. This requires advances in AI for decentralized decision-making and robust communication protocols.
Training and Simulation. Introducing unmanned systems demands a paradigm shift in training. Naval personnel must be adept at operating, maintaining, and strategizing with these systems. Simulators and wargaming exercises focusing on unmanned-manned collaboration should become integral to naval training programs.
Rules of Engagement. As the deployment of armed autonomous systems grows, India must establish clear rules of engagement. These rules should address proportionality, accountability, and compliance with international maritime law. Contributing to global discussions on autonomous systems ensures India’s voice in shaping these norms.
Long-Term Vision. The Navy’s vision must go beyond current capabilities, envisioning a future where unmanned systems dominate ISR, logistics, and combat operations. This includes leveraging advancements like quantum computing for secure communication, AI for predictive analytics and renewable energy for endurance.
Conclusion
The Indian Ocean Region, often referred to as the “world’s maritime highway,” represents both a lifeline and a vulnerability for nations dependent on its waters. For India, securing this vast expanse is not just about projecting power but also about ensuring the free flow of trade and energy resources that underpin the global economy. In this contested arena, unmanned systems offer a unique opportunity to enhance surveillance, deterrence, and operational reach while reducing the risks and costs associated with traditional manned platforms.
However, deploying these systems effectively demands more than just technological advancement, it requires a recalibration of India’s naval strategy to fully integrate manned and unmanned assets, invest in indigenous capabilities, and collaborate with regional and global partners. By addressing the asymmetric threats posed by piracy, terrorism, and grey-zone tactics, as well as countering state actors like the Pakistan Navy and the PLAN, unmanned systems can significantly enhance India’s maritime security posture. As a former U.S. Navy Admiral aptly noted, “The future of war is unmanned, autonomous, and driven by technology. But it will still depend on strategy.” This underscores a critical point, as brought out by Cmde (Dr) Arun Golaya (r), that technology, no matter how advanced, is only as effective as the strategy guiding its use.
For India, the strategic application of unmanned systems could well be a game changer, redefining power dynamics in the region. Yet, the potential exists for these platforms to merely extend existing paradigms if not integrated thoughtfully. The Indian Navy must therefore chart a course where unmanned systems become tools for transformation, not just augmentation. As the IOR continues to evolve, India must lead with vision, innovation, and resolve. In the words of Sun Tzu, “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” By investing in the future of unmanned systems and crafting a strategy that anticipates challenges, India can ensure that its maritime dominance in the Indian Ocean is not just sustained but elevated to new heights.
Commander Rahul Verma (r) is an Emerging Technology and Prioritization Scout for a leading Indian Multi-National Corporation, focusing on advancing force modernization through innovative technological applications and operational concepts. With 21 years as a Naval Aviator, including a distinguished role in the Indian Navy’s Technology Development Acceleration Cell, he brings diverse aviation experiences, from Seaking Pilot to RPAS Mission Commander and Flying Instructor.
