By GS Bawa
The Evolution of Flight: From the Wright Brothers to EVTOLs
The dream of flight has captivated human imagination since ancient times. From the mythological wings of Icarus to the ingenious designs of Leonardo da Vinci, the pursuit of flight has been a timeless and universal aspiration. On a chilly winter morning in December 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright successfully achieved the impossible, taking to the skies in the first powered, heavier-than-air aircraft. Humanity has always been fascinated by the concept of flight. ‘Higher You Go, Better You Appreciate the Earth Below’; and feel proud to be a child of Mother Earth. From the early days of aviation to the current era of space exploration, we have come a long way. In this article, we will focus on EVTOL (Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing) technology and its potential to revolutionize the future of aviation.
Fast forward to the present day, the aviation landscape has evolved dramatically; with the advent of space exploration, drones, and now, Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (EVTOL) aircraft. As we celebrate the Wright brothers’ pioneering achievement, we also look to the future, where EVTOLs promise to revolutionize urban air mobility, transforming the way we travel, transport goods, and experience the world around us.
The Evolution of Flight
The history of flight is a story of innovation and perseverance. From the Wright brothers’ early experiments to the development of modern commercial airliners, each milestone has built upon the last, driving the evolution of flight forward. As regards the timeline; 1903-The Wright Brothers developed the first powered aircraft, heavier-than-air aircraft; in 1930 the Jet Engines were developed that provided more efficient and faster flight; in 1958 the Boeing 707 was introduced which revolutionized aviation and gave birth to commercial aviation and successful jet airliners. The Advent of Fly-By-Wire Systems was in, say around the 1970s, this further Increased the safety and efficiency in aviation. Throughout its history, the aviation industry has been driven by innovation and technological advancements. From the development of new materials and engines to the integration of advanced avionics and automation systems, each breakthrough has helped to shape the modern aviation landscape.
Connecting the Dots that are evolving the EVTOLS in our Life
As I analyze some recent developments, I see a fascinating intersection of innovation, sustainability, and humanity’s quest for exploration. I was compelled to say – ‘What an exciting convergence of events!’
- The Booker Prize for “Orbital” highlights the growing interest in space exploration and its impact on human society. This award underscores the importance of storytelling in shaping our understanding of the world and our place within it.
- Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s SpaceX program continues to push the boundaries of space technology, with a focus on reusable rockets and sustainable space travel; which is a notable milestone.
- NASA’s Urban Air Mobility Initiative: NASA is actively exploring the development of urban air mobility systems, including eVTOLs. This initiative can provide valuable insights and resources for the development of eVTOLs, initially in America, and subsequently worldwide.
- Joby Aviation’s Partnership with Toyota: Joby Aviation, a leading eVTOL manufacturer, has partnered with Toyota to develop and manufacture eVTOLs. This partnership highlights the growing interest in eVTOLs from major automotive companies.
- Uber’s eVTOL Plans: Uber has announced plans to launch an eVTOL service, called Uber Air, in several cities around the world. This development demonstrates the growing demand for eVTOLs in urban mobility.
- The US Air Force’s Agility Prime Program: The US Air Force has launched the Agility Prime program, which aims to accelerate the development of eVTOLs for military and commercial applications. This program can provide valuable funding and resources for eVTOL development.
- The Growing Demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuels: The aviation industry is increasingly focused on reducing its carbon footprint, with many airlines and aircraft manufacturers investing in sustainable aviation fuels. eVTOLs can benefit from this trend, as they offer a more sustainable alternative to traditional fossil-fuel-powered aircraft.
- Advances in Autonomous Systems: The development of autonomous systems, such as autonomous drones and self-driving cars, is advancing rapidly. These technologies can be applied to eVTOLs, enabling autonomous flight, and enhancing safety.
- The Rise of Urban Air Mobility Hubs: Several companies, including Uber and Lilium, are developing urban air mobility hubs, which will serve as take-off and landing sites for eVTOLs. These hubs can help to accelerate the adoption of eVTOLs in urban areas.
Connecting the Dots
By connecting the Dots, we can see a growing ecosystem of innovation, investment, and demand for eVTOLs at the Global Level. The convergence of these factors can help to accelerate the development and adoption of eVTOLs, enabling a more sustainable, efficient, and innovative urban air mobility system. The Key Convergence shaping the EVTOLs are –
- Innovation Ecosystem: The success of SpaceX and the interest in space exploration (as reflected in the Booker Prize) demonstrate the vibrant innovation ecosystem in the United States. This ecosystem encourages experimentation, risk-taking, and investment in cutting-edge technologies like eVTOLs.
Sustainability Focus: As concern about climate change and environmental sustainability grows, eVTOLs offer a promising solution for reducing carbon emissions in urban air mobility. The emphasis on sustainability in space exploration (e.g., reusable rockets) can inform and accelerate the development of eco-friendly eVTOLs.
- Technological Convergence: The advancements in space technology, such as those driven by SpaceX, can have spin-off benefits for eVTOL development. For instance, improvements in materials science, propulsion systems, or autonomous navigation can be adapted and applied to eVTOLs.
- Regulatory Framework: As eVTOLs continue to advance, there will be a growing need for a supportive regulatory framework. The experience and lessons learned from regulating space activities can inform the development of regulations for eVTOLs, ensuring safety, efficiency, and innovation.
Thus, the convergence of these developments highlights the exciting possibilities at the intersection of innovation, sustainability, and exploration. As eVTOLs continue to evolve, they can draw inspiration and lessons from the advancements in space technology and the growing interest in sustainable and eco-friendly solutions.
The Rise of EVTOLs as Solution to Urban Air Mobility
EVTOLs, also known as eVTOLs or electric VTOLs, or AAM (Advanced Air Mobility) or LAV (Low Altitude Vehicles). These are a new class of aircraft that use electric motors to generate lift and propulsion. These aircraft are designed to take off and land vertically, like a helicopter, but are quieter, cleaner, and more efficient. These are supposed to address the present-day ills of aviation, such as Reduced Noise (as EVTOLs are designed to be significantly quieter than traditional helicopters and aircraft); Zero Emissions (as EVTOLs produce zero emissions, making them a more environment-friendly option); Increased Efficiency (as EVTOLs are more efficient than traditional aircraft, using less energy to travel the same distance.) Despite so many names and acronyms, too many, EVTOLs are ‘Yesterday News’.
Global Perspective – the views of ICAO, ACI, and IATA
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has brought the discussions in the open forums as; “the future of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft”. ICAO has addressed the issue under heads, such as the Environmental Impact (as eVTOLs can be a low-carbon alternative to conventional aircraft and ground vehicles); Safety (it has come out that Regulators, Manufacturers, and other Stakeholders must work together to ensure a safe entry of eVTOLs into airspace); Regulatory Framework (It has been emphasized that a globally harmonized regulatory framework is needed to support the safe introduction of eVTOLs); Collaboration (Everyone must communicate and collaborate to make effective use of eVTOL innovations); Deployment (The international community should act to foster the deployment of advanced air mobility in a seamless manner.)
ACI Europe believes that electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft could offer a range of benefits for European cities and regions; Improved passenger experience (eVTOLs could improve the passenger experience by providing accessible, rapid, and on-demand connectivity.); New revenue sources (EVTOLs could create new sources of revenue for airports.); Regional hubs: Regional airports could become hubs for low-carbon public transport and local traffic.
An Insightful Statement about the future of EVTOLs is that EVTOLs shall be Integrated into the existing aviation ecosystem, as EVTOLs could become an integral part of the aviation ecosystem, transporting people and cargo to locations that are not traditionally served by existing modes of transportation. The need is that it shall not only be cost-effective, but rather distinct from traditional helicopters in their technology and cost-effectiveness, thereby, aiming to integrate into everyday travel for affordability, efficiency, and safety. EVTOLs are also an apt solution for Emergency Services for providing rapid response time and reaching into difficult terrains.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects the market for electric vertical take-off and landing (EVTOL) aircraft to grow exponentially from 2025 onwards. However, IATA also notes that legacy infrastructure and regulations are lagging. From the Operations point of view, some key aspects of the future of eVTOLs are Piloted vs autonomous (Piloted eVTOLs are expected to grow faster than autonomous ones because they provide more reassurance to passengers and regulators; Long range EVTOLs (those can fly more than 200 km are expected to grow rapidly. These aircraft can connect cities and cover longer distances efficiently.); Market growth (The European eVTOL market is projected to reach USD 4.9 billion by 2035); Global fleet (The global EVTOL fleet is expected to surpass 10,000 units by 2030); Urban mobility ( EVTOLs could serve as air taxis in urban areas, providing a quick and convenient mode of transportation); Vertiports (Vertiports, the landing pads for eVTOLs, will be much smaller than airports and will be located in multiple spots within a city.); Safety (EVTOLs are designed with redundancy to make them potentially safer.)
Thus, EVTOLs have the potential to transform urban air mobility, providing a fast, efficient, and sustainable way to travel within cities. With the ability to take off and land vertically, EVTOLs can operate in a variety of environments, from urban rooftops to rural areas. As EVTOLs continue to develop and mature, they are likely to play a major role in shaping the future of urban air mobility. With the potential to reduce congestion, emissions, and noise. As such, EVTOLs offer a compelling solution for cities around the world. Further, it is being presented as a solution to reduce congestion (as EVTOLs can help to reduce congestion on roads and highways, thereby, providing a faster and more efficient way to travel). EVTOLs are also presented as Eco-friendly vehicles (as these produce zero emissions with reduced noise; significantly quieter than traditional helicopters and aircraft).
However, the integration of EVTOLs into urban air mobility systems will require significant investment in infrastructure, including vertiports and charging stations. Additionally, regulatory frameworks will need to be developed and standardized to ensure safety and efficiency. The Players and the Landscape are still evolving. The EVTOL industry is rapidly evolving, with a growing number of players entering the market. From startups to established manufacturers, companies are investing heavily in EVTOL technology, that are driven by the potential for significant returns. The Key Players are; Startups (i.e. companies like Joby Aviation, Lilium, and Vertical Aerospace are pioneering the development of EVTOLs); Established Manufacturers (such as Boeing, Airbus, and Bell) that are investing in EVTOL technology, leveraging their expertise and resources; and Technology Companies (e.g. companies like Uber and Google are also investing in EVTOL technology, driven by the potential for disruption in the transportation sector).
As the EVTOL industry continues to evolve, we will likely see significant consolidation and partnership activity, as companies look to leverage their strengths and expertise to drive growth and innovation. As we look to the future of aviation, it’s clear that EVTOLs will play a major role in shaping the landscape of urban air mobility. With their potential to reduce congestion, emissions, and noise. Thus, EVTOLs offer a compelling solution for cities around the world. The future of flight is exciting, and EVTOLs are leading the way.
The Challenges for the Future Technology
This technology has the potential to transform urban air mobility and provide a sustainable solution for transportation. The trends in future aviation technology include Electric and Hybrid Propulsion Systems, Autonomous and Semi-Autonomous Aircraft, Advanced Air Traffic Management Systems, and Aircraft Designed Specifically for Urban Air Mobility.
The Key Challenges are –
The challenges are in the form of Regulatory Frameworks (EVTOL aircraft are subject to a complex regulatory framework, which can make it difficult to bring them to market.), Public Acceptance and Awareness (EVTOL aircraft are new and unfamiliar technology, which can make it difficult to gain public acceptance.), Technical and Financial Challenges, and Integrated Approach to Urban Air Mobility. On the development front, the challenges are at the component level too; this includes Electric Motors (EVTOL aircraft use electric motors to generate power, which is more efficient and quieter than traditional fossil-fuel-powered engines), Battery Technology; EVTOL aircraft require advanced battery technology to provide sufficient range and endurance. Development of ‘Nuclear Diamond Battery’ is almost done, and this is going to further revolutionize the EVTOLs, in terms of, Long-Lasting, Zero Emission, High Energy Density, and Low Maintenance. Further, Distributed Propulsion (EVTOL aircraft often use multiple rotors or fans, which are distributed across the aircraft, to provide lift and propulsion); Autonomous Systems ( Many EVTOL aircraft are designed to operate autonomously, using sensors and software to navigate and avoid obstacles), Advanced Materials ( EVTOL aircraft often use advanced materials, such as carbon fiber and composites, to reduce weight and increase efficiency); all these challenges are being addressed in parallel. Scalability is always the key factor in the success of any technology and EVTOLs are no exception. EVTOL aircraft are currently more expensive than traditional aircraft, which can make it difficult to scale production. Self-flying (EVTOLs will eventually be self-flying, but the Regulators like FAA, in the USA and DGCA in India will require a Licensed Pilot Procedures in place). In the USA (southern Delaware) there is already news of owning a flying car by a Father-Daughter duo, among the first to own a flying car. Airspace and ATM challenges (there will be challenges with airspace and Air Traffic Management (ATM) as EVTOLs increase their usage.)
A more advanced approach is needed to safely scale operations, agnostic to the aircraft type. The modern urban environment shall support the existing and new airspace users and shall provide the required Ground Infrastructure (the required ground infrastructure shall evolve to accommodate EVTOLs with multiple vertiports serving different fleet operators.)
The Big Question – Will AAM (Advance Air Mobility) solve the vows of Aam Admi (Common Citizen)?
Last year, 57% of Bengaluru’s ground vehicle users faced delays. Now the question is whether AAM can tackle such congestion and boost the mobility of Aam Admi (Common Man) in a more efficient & effective manner. Simple traffic delays by urban gridlock have far-reaching economic and social consequences. Analysts find that in 2018, about seven lakh productive hours were lost due to being late and this accounted for losses worth Rs. 12 billion. On the other hand, Rural Areas feel disconnected due to poor transportation and suffer on account of healthcare, education, and other economic & social opportunities. Thus, AAM vehicles are being looked upon or say being projected to resolve these vows of communities staying in Rural and Urban areas. A recent Report titled, ‘Skyways to the Future: Operational Concepts for Advanced Air Mobility in India’; is a collaboration between the WEF (World Economic Forum) and MOCA (Ministry of Civil Aviation, India), and it shall be looked upon as a strong foundation on the subject. Sky is the Limit is an old proverb, but true for the transformative shift for AAM in urban mobility. Mr. Kinjarapu Ram Mohan Naidu, a young and energetic, Minister of Civil Aviation, has endorsed this collaboration of India with WEF as India’s commitment to embracing innovation into the national airspace. Mr. Naidu’s statement, ‘India is at the threshold of a transformative shift in mobility, and AAM represents a pivotal step toward unlocking the potential of our skies’; is befitting for the occasion and is motivating, indeed.
The mobility of masses in the rural and regional areas will enhance access to jobs and a better lifestyle. The concept of ‘ASHA’ (Advanced and Short Haul Air Mobility) is aimed at harnessing the potential of AAM to serve the urban and rural communities and to connect them for deriving synergies. Thus, AAM is not just a solution to urban decongestions, rather is an opportunity to connect rural areas to providing essential services, healthcare, etc. India’s unique demographic and geographic landscape positions AAM as the apt solution and AAM is seen as a catalyst for a more connected, equitable, and prosperous India.
Low–Altitude Economy
The buzz on social media is that China is ready to set up a new government department to drive a ‘low-altitude economy’. This department will look after the pilot programs for passengers using EVTOLs. Industry Experts asses that China will have about one lakh EVTOLs by 2030. Within two to three years, it will have ATC and ATM in place. Some companies have booked orders for hundreds of cars, as pre-development orders. Nearly 30+ Megha Projects have already been approved. Development is at its peak and there is a shortage of skilled workers, and it is assessed to be about a million jobs in waiting. China has opened universities to prepare for the new workforce. Experts feel that, as a strategy, China is known to open to the world only when it is ready to Take Over the market; even if it has to work for years and dump big money, allocate land, and dedicate institutions for the development of the products and procedures with proven benchmarks.
Current Market and Future Prospect
At the outset, at the cost of repetition, I must mention that Scalability is the biggest challenge for EVTOLs. EVTOLs are not Drones, as many people call them the Giant Drone; EVTOLs are full-fledged aircraft and are currently more expensive than traditional aircraft, which can make it difficult to scale production.
The EVTOL market is currently in its infancy, but it is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Several companies, say around a hundred in number, including Uber, Airbus, and Boeing, are already investing heavily in EVTOL technology.
In the future, EVTOL aircraft are expected to play a major role in urban air mobility, providing a fast, efficient, and sustainable way to travel within cities. The global market for eVTOL Aircraft was estimated at US$1.2 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach US$17.7 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 47.5% from 2023 to 2030. According to Market Research Future (MRFR), the Global eVTOL Aircraft Market is projected to reach a market value of USD 4 billion, expanding at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 30% by 2030. As per Kings Research, the global advanced air mobility market is set to hit $54.09 billion by 2031. Other industry estimates indicate that the eVTOL market is expected to grow from the present $163.9 million (the year 2023) to $55.7 billion by 2040. A word of caution; while assessing the economic impact of EVTOLs, we shall see the entire value chain of the EVTOLs, as it has a multiplier impact through its ecosystem, including component manufacturing, MROs, Education, Quality Life, etc.
The Status of EVTOLs
I recall that a couple of years back it used to sound like fiction, but today it has become a reality. “India Ideas Conclave,2022”, held in Bengaluru was bubbling with the announcement from the then Union Aviation Minister, that India is in conversation with several EVTOL producers. The status of eVTOLs in India and abroad is quite promising. In India, the government is actively supporting the development of eVTOLs, with plans to introduce them in the country, say by 2026. With this futuristic vision for India, at the apex level; India is surely to be one of the largest markets for eVTOLs in the world.
As per the information in the public domain, several companies, including Archer Aviation and SkyDrive, are already working on introducing eVTOLs in India. Archer Aviation has partnered with InterGlobe Enterprises, the parent company of IndiGo, to launch eVTOL services in India. SkyDrive, on the other hand, has signed a strategic partnership agreement with the Government of Gujarat to drive eVTOL technology in India.
EVTOLs are also gaining traction abroad. As I mentioned; in America, companies like Joby Aviation and Lilium are leading the charge in eVTOL development. The European Union is also investing heavily in eVTOL technology, with several companies, including Airbus and Boeing, working on eVTOL projects. I was part of a recent discussion at the launch of the Advanced Air Mobility Association for Innovation (AAMAI); it was attended by guests from abroad including Germany, and Austria in physical mode and many others in virtual mode; it was clear that the world is eying on India. Here I must mention that Europe has virtually taken the lead in applications of EVTOLs. The Vision & Mission of AAMAI for shaping India’s Future in Global Advanced Air Mobility impressed the SALAAM team and they signed the MoU of cooperation, spontaneously. Such partnerships are indicative of growth potential in the EVTOLs in general and in India in particular.
However, there are still several challenges that need to be addressed before EVTOLs can become a reality. Challenges as mentioned above, i.e., regulatory hurdles, public perception of safety, and infrastructure development, are just the challenges that must be addressed before launching the services. Overall, the future of eVTOLs looks promising, with several companies and governments investing heavily in this technology.
To establish India as a global leader in Sustainable & Innovative Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), fostering seamless connectivity, economic growth and environmental stewardship; it is important that stakeholders come forward to pool in their technological innovations and help India to become the hub of EVTOLs. Together we can take off and gain greater heights.
Summing Up
My Self, being Ex. AAI; people often ask; Shall Airports adapt to the new upcoming change? My reply is simple; airports have no choice, we at airports have seen aircraft like Concorde coming and going; and AB-380 coming and going; thus, Airports shall adopt before the neighbouring airport adopts the change. Airports are used to adapting to the change be it the technology for Baggage Handling, Screening for Security, Customs, or Immigration. Thus, Change and adaption to Change is the nature of airports business, and this change happens, noticeably, every 10 to 15 years.
A caution, before closing; India had missed the bus earlier in making an indigenous civilian aircraft to meet the geographical needs of our country; it is the right time for India shall take the lead and go for Leap Frog Technology to adopt and adapt EVTOLs. EVTOL technology has the potential to revolutionize the way we travel, making it faster, cleaner, and more efficient. While there are challenges to be addressed, the benefits of EVTOL make it an exciting and promising area of development. I am personally convenience, that EVTOLs will be effectively used for flying taxi services and small cargo, package deliveries. India shall not miss the bus this time.
It is the right time to visualize the imagination; “Imagine ordering an air taxi on your phone, just like an Uber, and picking it up at a Vertiport to land at a Taxi Hub not far from your home or workplace”. I am sure this dream of aviators will also come true, as the other’s dreams have come true.
G.S. Bawa is a Senior Aviation Consultant & Advisor. A Former General Manager, Airports Authority of India, he is a highly accomplished aviation professional with decades of experience in airport management, economic planning, corporate planning, public relations, and general administration. Through his expertise in domains, such as Airport Planning & Development, Economic Planning, Statistical Analysis & Traffic Forecasting, Public Relations, International Cooperation, and Training & Development; as a seasoned aviation professional, G.S. Bawa offers strategic guidance and expertise to aviation organizations, leveraging his vast experience is his forte.
