By Bikram Vohra
An embarrassment of riches can come with its own set of problems. Even as India exerts its right to be the kick-starter for the global aviation industry post the Covid era, there is always that fear lurking in one corner that we may have bitten off more than we can chew. The warning bell is not so much as one of doom as it is of concern that the rest of the infrastructure needed to prop up 1500-2000 aircraft in the next decade and a half must be commensurate with the massive expansion, or else the good intentions by themselves could wither on the vine.
Let us take a quick review of the fleet increases. Air India placed an order for 470 planes with Airbus and Boeing on fair distribution. IndiGo placed an order for five hundred single-family aircraft with Airbus to back up its earlier order for the same number; an Indigo report said, “With this additional firm order of 500 aircraft for 2030-2035, IndiGo’s order book has almost 1,000 aircraft yet to be delivered well into the next decade,”. That is a record. The fledgling Akasa then placed an order for 72 narrow-body aircraft with Boeing. It is still to receive 56 planes. It also announced a fresh order for another “triple-digit” addition. Vistara is waiting for the delivery of 17 single aisles.
The government’s proactive approach to creating a conducive environment for aviation growth is a key factor contributing to India’s pole position in the global aviation landscape. Through policy reforms and liberalisation efforts, India has attracted significant foreign investment and participation in the aviation sector. The emphasis on ease of doing business and streamlining bureaucratic processes has encouraged domestic and international players to invest in India’s aviation potential.
Furthermore, the aircraft order has the potential to transform India into a major manufacturing hub for the aviation industry. As the order comprises a substantial number of planes, global aircraft manufacturers will likely explore opportunities to set up production facilities in India to efficiently cater to the demand. This move would not only boost employment and technical knowledge but also lead to technological advancements and skill development within the country.
The implications of this ambitious order extend beyond India’s domestic market. It also positions India as a key player in international trade and travel. By bolstering its aviation capabilities, India seeks to establish itself as a vital connecting hub for international flights, capitalising on its strategic geographical location between the East and the West. This will not only enhance India’s geopolitical significance but also open new avenues for economic growth and diplomatic influence.
Moreover, the aviation order underpins India’s commitment to sustainability and green initiatives. As climate change continues to be a global concern, the aviation industry faces increasing pressure to reduce its carbon footprint. By incorporating fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly aircraft into its fleet, India demonstrates its determination to play a responsible role in addressing climate challenges while maintaining its economic growth trajectory.
However, despite India’s significant strides, it must also address several challenges to solidify its pole position in global aviation. Infrastructure development, air traffic management, and skilling the workforce to meet the demands of the growing industry are critical aspects that need focused attention. The government must continue to invest in modernising airports, expanding regional connectivity, and improving air traffic management systems to accommodate the surge in air travel.
India’s audacious order of over 1000 aircraft in just three months cements its position as an emerging power in global aviation. This decision showcases India’s determination to leverage the aviation industry’s potential for economic growth, technological advancement, and strategic significance. By strengthening its aviation infrastructure, India aims to become a major player in international trade and travel, fostering economic growth and diplomatic influence. However, India must address infrastructure challenges and compete effectively in the global market to maintain its pole position. With the right strategies and sustained efforts, India has the potential to soar to new heights as a force to be reckoned with in the global aviation industry.
On paper, all this looks very impressive. See it through the UDAN initiative’s prism and the interior’s opening; it even looks like a sensible and successful investment. Since 94% of 1.6 billion Indians have never flown, the potential shrieks in one’s face. But this must become viable so that the unholy trinity of congestion, delay and backup and shoddy turnaround maintenance are not given a look in.
And to do so, there should be no time wasted in setting up training facilities across the board and creating cadres of expertise and experience. It is not just pilots that we are talking about. One of the most crucial areas is that of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and the need for massive upgrading of equipment and more attractive remuneration for those who accept this vital element of aviation as a career.
The report highlights the shortage of air traffic controllers in India, with 3,692 Air Traffic Control Officers (ATCOs) on active duty against the required current strength of 4,211. This means that 519 more personnel are required to keep operations smooth. This gap would increase exponentially unless the planning began now and was done in a phased and planned fashion. Modern technology and even the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in monitoring aircraft movements must be factored in. All the nice, new shiny planes mean nothing without innovative safety measures.
Similarly, there is also a need to take Maintenance Repair (MRO) activities to another level. We must become independent and self-sufficient and offer MRO service at a global level. India’s MRO market for its commercial aircraft fleet is currently valued at $1.7 billion. This is expected to increase by about 9% annually to reach $4 billion in 2031, with commensurate growth in the fleet. According to a Kearney report, civil and military MRO activity potential could reach $7 billion by 2030. India’s top three MRO players—AIESL, Air Works, and GMR Aero Technic—account for only about $200 million in revenue.
Meanwhile, the major global companies, such as Lufthansa Technik (LHT), Air France Industries, and KLM Engineering and Maintenance, each have annual revenues of $3.5 billion to $4 billion. These companies are market leaders in their respective countries and leaders in third-party business. The argument is predicated on the fact that, at present, only about 20% of MRO services are engaged at home, with the rest going abroad. That is again an enormous potential if the sector is given due importance. There are eight major players in the Indian market, namely, AIESL, Air Works, Indamer Private Limited, Deccan Charter, Taj Air, Bird ExecuJet, GMR Aero Technic Limited and Max MRO Private Limited who have the skills to conduct MRO operations on most aircraft which operate in Indian skies.
There is also another vital component in the current revolution. And that is the choice of fleet vis a vis the route map. Indian carriers have often been buffeted by political pressures and made to fly on unprofitable routes. While it is not that easy to push private airlines into these corners, unlike the systematic dismantling of Air India and even Indian Airline’ bottom lines, that consideration, deadly as it is, cannot be ruled out.
Air safety is another area that has often been ignored in India or given short shrift. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) was responsible for air safety and air accident investigation for years. Ergo, it never found itself guilty. Add to this, India had the absurd habit of setting up post-accident commissions under judges who had no knowledge of aviation. As such, they had to be first educated in the rudiments of lying. It is a sobering thought that most of the recommendations of these judges were never implemented as memories of every crash faded from the front page.
It is now mandated that if we want to be seen as a safe frontline warrior of the skies, we need an independent body like the United States National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) with the necessary talent and knowledge to keep safety parameters intact. It is the constant ‘big brother is watching’ element that is crucial because then there is a regular interpretative flow of data from snag sheets, Go items, MEL lists, metal fatigue and the scores of niggles that occur in flight every day. To abort them before they become a pattern and indicate a flaw is of utmost importance.
If we can get these ducks in a row, then Indian aviation will deservedly get pole position on the global network.
As one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, India has been on an upward trajectory for years. There is no, and this substantial investment in aircraft further amplifies its commitment to progress and development. By reinforcing its aviation infrastructure, India aims to capitalise on its expanding middle class, rising disposable incomes, and increasing demand for air travel within the country and beyond.
Union aviation minister Jyotiraditya Scindia has gone on record saying the investment in new aircraft crosses INR 1000 crores. It makes sense that the same will be spent on infrastructure, if not more.
The Indian uplift of passengers has grown from six crores in 2013 to 13.5 crores now.
This is a good graph, but to change the national mindset even more dramatically, the concept of flying per se will have to be made more attractive.
Between safety, security measures and baggage restrictions and the delay factor, taking a flight is a tedious and funless exercise. This absence of enjoyment in the adventure was further emphasised in the Covid period. The airport congestion and calls in season to arrive several hours before take-off would make a mockery of short-haul flights. There is an irony in this as trans-modal options improve. Trains and public buses on far better roads with upmarket rest stops offer intense competition.
Why would I arrive three hours before a one-hour flight and then at the other end fight downtown traffic to reach the city centre, thereby consuming six to seven hours if there is no additional delay when I can go city to city by surface transport in less time.
Not just that, but a seat on a train or even a bus is more comfortable than an aircraft and its cramped offerings. As for the Indian affection for food when travelling, the current options are far from delectable.
There is also an international dimension. Competition in the global aviation market is intense, with established players from Europe, North America, and the Middle East vying for dominance. India must now begin to build strong alliances, foster partnerships, and adopt innovative marketing strategies so she can position herself at the East-West crossroads and attract transit and visitation equally.
By strengthening its aviation infrastructure, India aims to become a major player in international trade and travel, fostering economic growth and diplomatic influence. But the aim must not falter.
Bikram Vohra is the Consulting Editor of Indian Aerospace & Defence
