By Air Marshal Anil Chopra (r)
Space has already emerged as the next great frontier, where geostrategic play is quickly unfolding. Space impacts all activities on planet Earth. More importantly, all major powers are not only building capabilities to harness the great potential of space but also evolving means to secure assets and dominate the domain. India is a significant player and is one of the only six countries in the world that possess full launch capabilities, deploy cryogenic engines, launch extra-terrestrial missions and operate large fleets of artificial satellites. And the only country to have landed a spacecraft on Moon’s South Pole. India builds all kinds, and sizes, of satellites. Its Chandrayaan-3 landing on the moon has ignited a global lunar race that was somewhat on the back burner. India’s Aditya L1 is in position at designated orbit. We just witnessed the successful experimental flight of India’s Re-usable Launch Vehicle (RLV) “Pushpak ‘Viman” (RLV LEX 02).
Clearly, the USA and China are racing ahead in space exploration and capability building. India has all the building blocks in place but needs to invest more to become a significant space power. Luckily India’s space sector is being driven directly by the Prime Minister’s Office. PM Modi has directed that the Space sector be “unlocked” and set a five-fold increase target in its share of the global space economy. The Space Budget has seen an exponential increase in the last decade. The Indian Space Policy 2023, and the setting up of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre or IN-SPACe have been created to support private sector participation in space activities. The Anusandhan National Research Foundation (NRF) supports greater PPP in scientific research. NRF budget envisions a funding of Rs. 50,000 crore over five years.
India’s Current Capabilities in Space
India’s Space program is run by the state-controlled Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The broad capabilities including putting Indian-designed and built satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geo Stationary or Transfer Orbits (GTO) are in place. India’s most powerful Launch Vehicle Mark-3 (LVM3), can carry 10-ton payload to LEO, and 4 tons to GTO, and is being human-rated for the Gaganyaan project. The other three major space powers, including China, have launch vehicles that can put in excess of 25 tons, or even much more. India too is working to develop heavy (HLV) and super-heavy lift launch vehicles (SHLV). To deliver 50–100 tons, and also re-useable launch vehicles. India also has the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) for smaller payloads around 500 Kg to LEO, and 300 Kg to Sun-synchronous orbit (500 km).
India operates a large number of home-grown remote-sensing, communications, meteorological, and other satellites. Indian satellites also support Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) for India’s strategic community needs. The major space powers have small satellite constellations. India too is working on having its own. It has begun operating its IRNSS (NavIC) satellite navigation systems, albeit much more needs to be done. It has sent three missions to the Moon and one to Mars. India has demonstrated anti-satellite kinetic-kill capability. The crewed space flight is expected in 2025. The realistic timelines for India’s three-crew, 20 ton, Space Station operating at 400 Km, would be 2030. China’s Tiangong space station has been operational since 2021, and growing gradually in size. India targets to put an astronaut on the lunar surface by 2040. Interestingly, the three major space powers have had over 20 astronauts each.
NISAR is a low earth orbit observatory being developed by ISRO and NASA, which will map the entire Earth in 12 days and provide consistent data for understanding changes in the planet’s ecosystems. It is expected to happen in the first half of 2024. The best part is that India has built its space capabilities with rather low budgets. India’s private sector is becoming significant with the number of players in the space domain, including launch vehicles, cost-efficient rockets, small satellites, satellite constellations, and rocket and satellite propulsion.
Near Space a Place of Action
Typically, the Near Space is between 23 km and 100 km altitude. This under-utilized region has very little air to support conventional aircraft flight. The region would see spy balloons, solar-powered drones, and the operation of hypersonic missiles. Tethered solar-based drones as quasi-satellites acting as eyes in the sky, at around 30 Km altitude are evolving. China has reportedly established the world’s first ‘Near-Space Command.’ They believe that dominating near-space will provide an edge in envisaged Space wars. Chinese very high-altitude spy balloons have been seen in many places in the last two years.
NASA’s Near Space Network delivers critical communications and navigation services to space missions and sends back all forms of data to Earth. The IAF Chief VR Chaudhari has already highlighted the importance of Near Space, and the need to harness it. Bengaluru-based NewSpace Research and Technologies Pvt Ltd (NRT) has flown its long-endurance drone, the solar-powered High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite (HAPS), a first flight lasting over 21 hours.
Merging Air and Space
The United States, the United Kingdom, France and Russia have already merged Air and Space domains. While India currently has a tri-service Defence Space Agency (DSA), the Indian Air Force (IAF) outlined the Defence Space Vision 2020, further expanded upon in the IAF Doctrine 2022, with the aim to utilize satellite resources to significantly enhance India’s defence preparedness. In view of significant action in the ‘Near Space’ there is a requirement to merge the air and space domains. This would support aerospace deterrence and safeguard space assets, offering significant potential to leverage Space as both a weapon and a shield.
Space Militarisation and Deterrence
More and more platforms and weapons such as ballistic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles are transiting through space. Both hard and soft kill anti-satellite systems have been tested and are in place. Space-based jamming, directed energy weapons and electromagnetic pulse systems are being developed, for use in space or from the ground. Space warfare is being fine-tuned. Space will be used for electronic and cyber warfare. China has developed capabilities to grab and remove satellites, ostensibly as ‘space cleaners’. These could be used to remove adversary satellites. Space capabilities will soon be greater deterrence than even nuclear weapons.
Indian Military Capabilities in Space Need a Boost
India has all basic technologies in place, but capabilities have to increase to meet national strategic requirements. Modern ISR and communication satellites are the center of gravity for military operations. India has a huge landmass and Oceans to secure from two formidable adversaries. IAF aircraft and Indian Naval platforms have to cover global ranges and require satellite-based support. India needs high-resolution radar and electro-optical sensors in space. Space Communication links need to be secured. Immediate priority is to increase India’s ISR capability and reduce revisit time, and secondly to fully operationalize the satellite navigation system, and increase its footprint, and Indian armed forces must migrate from GPS to NavIC.
India’s secure Positioning Navigation and Targeting (PNT) ability has to go up. The satellite requirements are huge. India is still in the process of building large small-satellite constellations. These will reduce costs and increase redundancy. India has already developed Small Satellite Launch Vehicles (SSLV). Numbers have to go up for launch-on-demand readiness capability.
The very huge data from space-based assets would have to be processed and secured. This would need fusion and integration with data from other aerial and ground-based sensors. In the end, the armed forces and the security agencies need actionable information. New Delhi has space security partnerships with the Quad countries as well as some others like France, and these are important.
The security and defence agencies spend nearly a billion dollars annually to procure earth observation data and imagery from foreign sources. This high reliance on foreign entities is not desirable for India’s security. India has a long way to go for real-time satellite imagery. In the areas of interest, we should be able to image once in 3-4 hours. This would mean many more small satellites.
More countries, including China, are building counter-space capabilities. India carried out its ASAT test against a target satellite at 283 kilometers altitude. Agni-5 class three-stage rocket will allow satellite intercepts up to 800 kilometers. Analysts are suggesting the need for a repeat ASAT capability test. India must secure its satellites from electronic and cyber-attacks. New satellites are being developed with atomic batteries and plasma thrusters to allow increased manoeuvrability. There is a need to develop Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) to neutralize adversary satellites.
Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is important. India needs to track space objects and classify them as friendly, hostile or debris and predict their orbits. India must promote multilateral partnerships with major space powers to share SSA and also to promote peaceful space governance and work towards securing its assets.
Militarisation of Space is happening. India needs to develop offensive and defensive capabilities. India will need close to 100 military satellites, by 2030. Air, Near Space, and Space must be merged into a single domain for better exploitation. IAF’s existing integrated air command and control system (IACCS) should then evolve into the integrated air and space command and control system (IASCCS). India has the technological wherewithal. The armed forces must place more demands and the government allot greater funds. The time to act is now.
Air Marshal Anil Chopra (r) PVSM AVSM VM VSM is the Director General of the Centre for Airpower Studies.
